Paul Skenes’ 2025 Performance Projections: A Step Back for the Rising Star?

Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching phenom, has already captured the attention of the baseball world. With an incredible rookie season, he made history by finishing with a 1.96 ERA, the best ever by a rookie in the modern era. However, as the 2025 MLB season approaches, popular projection systems such as ZiPS and Steamer predict a decline in his performance.

A Rookie Season for the Ages

Skenes, a standout talent from LSU and a consensus No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, quickly ascended to the majors after just 34 2/3 innings in the minors. He made his debut on May 11, 2024, against the Chicago Cubs, striking out seven batters in four innings. He not only earned NL Rookie of the Year honors but also started the All-Star Game for the National League—a testament to his dominance on the mound. Unfortunately, his brilliance couldn’t offset the Pirates’ struggles, as the team missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season.

What ZiPS Predicts for 2025

The ZiPS projection system, developed by baseball analyst Dan Szymborski, forecasts a challenging sophomore season for Skenes. While his numbers remain solid, they fall short of his stellar rookie performance. ZiPS projects a 3.24 ERA over 155 1/3 innings, with 181 strikeouts and a strikeout percentage of 28.8%, down from 33.1% in 2024. His win-loss record is expected to be 8-6, which could feel underwhelming for a pitcher who aims to log 240 innings in 2025.

Steamer’s Slightly Brighter Outlook

Another projection system, Steamer, offers a more optimistic view of Skenes’ 2025 campaign. Steamer predicts an ERA of 2.80 with 188 innings pitched and a strikeout percentage of 31.9%. However, it also projects Skenes allowing 16 home runs, up from 10 in 2024. While these numbers are more favorable, they still fall short of the lofty expectations Skenes has set for himself.

What This Means for the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to rely heavily on their young ace to lead their rebuilding efforts. However, the team’s long-term success depends not just on Skenes’ development, but also on whether ownership is willing to invest in supporting talent. Without significant roster improvements, the Pirates risk wasting Skenes’ prime years in the name of long-term planning. For Skenes, 2025 will test not just his physical endurance but also his ability to adapt to heightened expectations and league adjustments. If projections hold true, it might be another frustrating year for both him and the Pirates’ loyal fanbase.