Sasaki Sweepstakes: A Two-Team Race

As the MLB offseason heats up, all eyes are on Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, a 23-year-old right-hander who has captured the attention of major league clubs across the globe. Sasaki is poised to join MLB in 2025, but the path to his eventual signing is far from clear. While many believe the contest to sign Sasaki could come down to a battle between two teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, there are still many factors in play that could influence his decision.

Sasaki’s MLB Signing Timeline

The highly anticipated signing of Sasaki, who currently plays for the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), is expected to occur after January 15, 2025, when the new international signing period begins. This timing is significant because Sasaki, due to his age and service time, is subject to MLB’s international signing bonus pool system. As a result, the total value of his contract will be determined by a team’s remaining bonus pool money.

For teams to compete for Sasaki’s services, they must work within the constraints of this system. As of now, the Dodgers lead the pack with the largest available bonus pool at around $2.5 million for the 2024 signing period. However, if Sasaki waits until the 2025 period, his contract could be worth as much as $7 million, providing him with a greater earning potential.

Dodgers vs. Padres

Many experts view the Dodgers as the frontrunners to land Sasaki once he is posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines, which is expected to happen this offseason. Despite recent moves, such as the addition of pitcher Blake Snell to their roster, the Dodgers’ interest in Sasaki remains strong. The Los Angeles is still heavily involved in the race, even as other teams express interest.

However, there is another team that has emerged as a serious contender for Sasaki’s signature: the San Diego Padres. The Padres are the only other team with “a true shot” at landing Sasaki. The Padres have been making moves to position themselves as an attractive destination for top talent, and Sasaki could be the latest piece they seek to add to their rotation.

What Sets Padres Apart from Dodgers?

While the Dodgers have the advantage of a larger bonus pool for 2024, the Padres’ potential appeal lies in their aggressive approach to roster-building and their willingness to invest in high-caliber players. The Padres have already made significant moves in recent seasons to bolster their team, and signing Sasaki would solidify their commitment to competing at the highest level. San Diego’s growing reputation as a team willing to make bold moves could be a factor that sways Sasaki’s decision.

The Road Ahead

Before Sasaki can sign with any MLB team, he must be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines. The team confirmed earlier this month that Sasaki will be posted for MLB clubs during the current offseason, which opens the door for the intense bidding war to officially begin. Once posted, Sasaki will be free to negotiate with any team that has the available bonus pool funds, but the Dodgers and Padres are likely to be the two main contenders.

While the Dodgers and Padres currently appear to be the frontrunners in the Sasaki sweepstakes, other teams with available bonus pool funds could emerge as potential suitors. However, with the two NL West rivals both keen on landing the Japanese phenom, it seems likely that the battle for Sasaki will indeed come down to these two teams. As the 2025 international signing period approaches, the question remains: will the Dodgers’ deep pockets or the Padres’ bold strategy prevail in securing one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the world? Time will tell.