2025 Divisional Round: Top Fantasy Mismatches Set to Ignite Drama

As the NFL 2025 playoffs heat up, fantasy players are looking for the best matchups to maximize their lineups. The Divisional Round promises several intriguing clashes, with a mix of offensive juggernauts and defenses ready to challenge them. Let’s break down the top four fantasy mismatches that could have a significant impact on your fantasy football lineup.

1. Patrick Mahomes vs. Houston Texans’ Defense

Patrick Mahomes is a postseason superstar. Since becoming the Chiefs’ starting QB in 2018, Mahomes has made it to the playoffs every year and has yet to lose before the AFC Championship Game. In 2024, the Texans’ defense posed a significant threat, with the highest pressure rate in the league at 38.9%. However, Mahomes has an answer for nearly every defensive scheme, especially when it comes to quick passes.

In a Week 16 win against Houston, Mahomes completed 17 of 19 quick passes for 155 yards and a touchdown—an 83.6% completion rate on such passes, the highest in the NFL. Even when the Texans opted for man coverage, Mahomes responded by throwing for 151 yards against it, his most in any game this season.

And if Houston manages to flush Mahomes out of the pocket? Good luck. Over the last six postseasons, Mahomes has thrown for 14 touchdowns outside the pocket—more than any other QB—while also rushing for 517 yards, 32 first downs, and 4 touchdowns. With an extra week to study the Texans’ defense, expect Mahomes to lead the Chiefs through another dominant performance.

DFS Outlook: DraftKings Price: $6,000

Mahomes may not have the ceiling of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but he offers great value for daily fantasy players. Averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game in January, Mahomes is a steady performer at a discount, especially considering his history of postseason success.

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Washington Commanders

Amon-Ra St. Brown has quietly emerged as one of the league’s most effective receivers. His skills align perfectly with the Washington Commanders’ defensive weaknesses, particularly against the blitz. Despite limited pressure on Baker Mayfield in the Wild Card Round, Washington’s defense has struggled when blitzing, allowing a high rate of explosive plays. St. Brown, who excels in these situations, could feast.

With 27 first-down conversions against the blitz this season, St. Brown leads the league in this category. Even more impressive, he boasts an 89.3% catch rate when aligned outside, the highest for any WR with at least 25 such targets in a season. As Washington’s defense has struggled against the slot, St. Brown is well-positioned to shine, especially as he operates both inside and outside.

DFS Outlook: DraftKings Price: $7,200

St. Brown’s ability to beat blitzes and his high catch rate make him a valuable asset in daily fantasy contests. With Washington struggling against the slot, St. Brown is likely to see significant opportunities, making him a top play this week.

3. A.J. Brown vs. Los Angeles Rams

A.J. Brown is coming off a disappointing Wild Card performance, but he has a prime opportunity to bounce back in the Divisional Round. His Eagles face the Los Angeles Rams, a team Brown has historically performed well against. In a Week 12 showdown, Brown snagged 109 yards and a touchdown on just six catches, with the majority of those yards coming against cornerback Darious Williams.

Brown excels against man coverage, racking up the second-most receiving yards (505) and the highest yards per route run (4.2) against it this season. However, the Rams have switched to a more zone-heavy defense, deploying it on 73.6% of their snaps. Despite this, Brown has shown he can handle zone defenses—he went 3-3 on targets against Los Angeles’ zone in their previous matchup.

DFS Outlook: DraftKings Price: $7,000

Although coming off a quiet Wild Card game, A.J. Brown has shown his ability to bounce back, especially against the Rams’ defense. With a high target share and the potential for a big performance, Brown is a prime candidate for a solid fantasy outing.

4. Lamar Jackson vs. Buffalo Bills’ Defense

The nightcap of the Divisional Round features a blockbuster QB battle between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. While both quarterbacks are MVP candidates, the data points to Jackson having the upper hand. Jackson has dominated zone coverage this season, boasting a 119.1 passer rating—highest by any QB since 2018—while leading the league in yards per attempt (9.5).

In a Week 4 victory over the Buffalo Bills, Jackson passed for 210 yards and three touchdowns, with his receivers often running free due to Baltimore’s speed. The Bills, who use zone coverage on 73.6% of their snaps, have struggled in this area, allowing 17 passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 93.8 to opposing QBs. Jackson’s ability to attack deep—he leads the NFL in both TD passes and completion rate on throws 10+ yards downfield—will be key in this matchup.

DFS Outlook: DraftKings Price: $7,800

Lamar Jackson is a fantasy stud, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game in 2024. With the potential for a shootout in this game, Jackson is a prime candidate to lead your lineup. His consistent production and ability to produce big plays make him a top-tier DFS option.