2025 Fantasy Football Running Back Projections: Evaluating Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson & More

Anyone who followed my analysis last season knows that my biggest mistake was underestimating Saquon Barkley and other veteran running backs who changed teams in 2024. I relied too heavily on historical data rather than individual talent. Looking at the early 2025 Fantasy Football Projections, I am determined not to repeat the same mistake with the Super Bowl champion.

However, before making any bold predictions, it’s essential to understand that these early projections are data-driven rather than based on personal opinions. Over the next six months, deeper analysis will refine these numbers. For now, the data is based on past performances and coaching tendencies to predict what may unfold in 2025.

Key Factors Impacting Saquon Barkley’s 2025 Outlook

The biggest concerns surrounding Barkley stem from his age, workload, and historical trends. Here’s what to consider:

Age Factor: At 28 years old, Barkley enters a phase where many elite running backs begin to decline.
2000-Yard Curse: History shows that running backs who have surpassed 2,000 rushing yards in a season typically struggle or face injuries the following year.
Total Touches: Barkley had an astonishing 482 total touches (regular season + playoffs) in 2024. Players with similar workloads in the past have often seen a drop in production.

For now, Barkley remains RB1 in our early rankings and is the only running back projected to exceed 320 Fantasy points. If you’re playing Best Ball Fantasy, I would still prefer Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, and CeeDee Lamb over Barkley, but he remains a top-five pick in all formats.

Beyond Barkley: Bijan Robinson & Other Key RBs

The most challenging aspect of these projections is predicting workload distribution for RBs outside of Barkley. Free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft could significantly impact these rankings. One of the murkiest backfields belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne have legitimate claims to the RB1 role. With new head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars’ rushing attack could take various directions.

As we move deeper into the offseason, more clarity will emerge regarding player roles, injuries, and coaching decisions. Until then, Barkley remains a must-watch player, while rising stars like Bijan Robinson and other young talents could shake up the rankings.