How Josh Allen Handles Detroit DC Aaron Glenn’s Scheme Will Determine Showdown
The phrase “Super Bowl preview” is often tossed around when top-tier NFL teams meet in the second half of the regular season. In this Week 15 showdown in Detroit, the term seems fitting. The 10-3 Buffalo Bills and the 12-1 Detroit Lions are not only top contenders but also share the spotlight as favorites to reach the Super Bowl. SportsLine projections give this matchup an 11.4% likelihood of being the final showdown in February.
Buffalo boasts the second-best scoring offense, averaging 30.5 points per game, while Detroit leads the NFL with an explosive 32.1 points per game. Both teams have showcased their ability to dominate on offense, making this clash a test of both skill and resilience.
The Key Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Aaron Glenn’s Blitz
The game’s outcome will largely depend on how well Josh Allen navigates Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s aggressive scheme. The Lions’ second-ranked scoring defense (18.0 points allowed per game) has relied heavily on blitzing to make up for the absence of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Since Hutchinson’s injury in Week 6, Glenn has dialed up the blitz at a league-high rate of 41.1%, resulting in the lowest passer rating allowed (67.7) and seven interceptions during blitz situations.
However, Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz. His 123.8 passer rating ranks fourth in the league, and he leads with 14 touchdown passes under such circumstances. Key factors contributing to Allen’s success:
- Quick Decision-Making: Allen’s average time to throw is 2.85 seconds, the fastest of his career.
- Safer Passing: With an average pass depth of 8.1 yards, Allen trusts checkdown options more frequently, reducing turnovers.
- Reliable Protection: The Bills’ offensive line has allowed the 10th-lowest quarterback pressure rate (32.2%) and ranks seventh against blitz pressure (36.9%).
- Diverse Targeting: Allen has thrown touchdowns to 12 different players in 2024, showcasing his versatility.
Allen’s ability to dissect blitz-heavy schemes will be the deciding factor in this clash of titans.
Can Detroit’s Offense Tip the Scales?
While much of the spotlight is on Allen vs. Glenn, the Lions’ dynamic running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery—dubbed “Sonic and Knuckles”—offers their own advantage. Gibbs and Montgomery have made NFL history as the first pair of backs with 10 rushing touchdowns each in consecutive seasons. Their physicality and endurance have fueled Detroit’s rushing attack, which averages 4.6 yards per carry, the eighth-best in the league.
However, Buffalo’s run defense, while shaky at times (4.7 yards allowed per carry, seventh-most in the league), can mitigate this advantage if the game flow favors Allen’s arm over the Lions’ ground game. A quarterback’s ability to execute in critical moments often outweighs a dominant rushing attack, particularly in a high-stakes game.
Prediction: Bills Outshine Lions in a Thriller
This matchup has all the makings of a classic, with both teams boasting explosive offenses and innovative strategies. However, Josh Allen’s mastery against the blitz gives the Bills a slight edge. Expect a close, high-scoring affair with the Bills pulling off a narrow 31-28 victory, solidifying their Super Bowl credentials.
