Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: Which MVP candidate has the edge in the AFC Divisional Round?
The AFC Divisional Round clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills promises to be one of the most exciting games of the postseason. This matchup features two superstar quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, both frontrunners in the 2024 NFL MVP race. With a ticket to the AFC Championship on the line, fans are eagerly anticipating this historic duel.
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen: A Historic Quarterback Duel
This isn’t just a playoff game; it’s a historic moment. For the first time ever, two quarterbacks who accounted for over 40 total touchdowns and fewer than 10 turnovers during the regular season will face each other in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 12-5 record with 45 total touchdowns, 5,087 total yards, and only 9 turnovers. Meanwhile, Josh Allen guided the Bills to a 13-4 record with 40 total touchdowns, 4,269 total yards, and just 8 turnovers.
The two quarterbacks are tied 2-2 in head-to-head matchups, but Allen holds the edge in the postseason, having defeated Jackson in the 2020 Divisional Round. However, that victory came with an asterisk as Jackson left the game in the second half due to a concussion. Sunday’s matchup offers a fresh opportunity for these MVP-caliber quarterbacks to settle the score.
Ravens Offense vs. Bills Defense: Ground Game Domination
The Ravens’ offense is a juggernaut, featuring one of the most effective ground games in NFL history. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have combined for a record-breaking 2,836 rushing yards this season. Baltimore’s offensive scheme relies on heavy formations, often using multiple tight ends and running backs to create mismatches. They lead the NFL in two-tight-end sets, utilizing this formation on 47.9% of their plays, while Patrick Ricard, a 300-pound fullback, adds another dimension of power to their attack.
The Bills’ defense, designed to stop the pass, struggles against the run. In Week 4, the Ravens dominated Buffalo, racking up 271 rushing yards, including 199 yards from Derrick Henry. Despite adjustments like increasing their base defense usage in that game, the Bills had no answer for Baltimore’s ground game.
Buffalo’s best hope lies in the return of key defensive players like Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Taron Johnson. If they can disrupt plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, the Bills might slow down Baltimore’s rushing attack. However, the Ravens still hold a decisive edge in this department.
Bills Offense vs. Ravens Defense: A Narrow Edge for Buffalo
While the Ravens dominate on the ground, the Bills’ offense brings balance and explosiveness. In their Wild Card win over the Broncos, Buffalo controlled the game with an impressive time of possession of 41:43, driven by a standout performance from running back James Cook, who rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown.
However, Josh Allen will face a daunting challenge against the Ravens’ top-ranked defense. Since Week 11, Baltimore has allowed just 15.4 points per game, leading the league in scoring defense, total defense (261.7 yards per game), and third-down defense (29.7% conversion rate). A key factor in their resurgence has been the reorganization of their secondary. All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton shifted to a full-time strong safety role, while undrafted veteran Ar’Darius Washington took over at free safety.
Despite Baltimore’s defensive improvements, Allen’s ability to excel under pressure gives Buffalo a slight advantage offensively. He has already delivered standout performances against top teams, producing 747 total yards and 6 touchdowns in regular-season wins over the Lions and Chiefs.
Prediction: Ravens’ Ground Game Will Prevail
Ultimately, the Ravens’ powerful rushing attack and improved defense will likely be too much for the Bills to handle. Buffalo’s defense, built to stop the pass, isn’t equipped to withstand Baltimore’s physicality. Even if the Bills manage to contain the run, they’ll still have to contend with Lamar Jackson, the league’s most efficient passer.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 20
This AFC Divisional Round clash between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is one for the ages. Featuring two of the NFL’s brightest stars, the game will not only determine a spot in the AFC Championship but could also shape the legacies of these MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Fans should brace themselves for a thrilling battle between two of the league’s elite.