2025 NFL divisional-round predictions: Patrick Mahomes struggles by Texans, while Lamar Jackson dominated Josh Allen
The NFL divisional round is where the stakes hit a fever pitch, showcasing the league’s top teams and unforgettable battles. Following a wild-card round where the record was 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 straight up, the focus shifts to four pivotal matchups. From Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs chasing history to Jayden Daniels leading the Commanders’ Cinderella story, here’s an in-depth look at each game, complete with predictions and standout players.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: A Clash of Styles
Projected score: Chiefs 23-17
Pick: Texans +8.5
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are eyeing an NFL first: a three-peat as Super Bowl champions. However, they face a Houston Texans defense that stunned everyone in the wild-card round, holding opponents to a sub-45% completion rate while tallying four sacks and four interceptions—a feat not seen since the 2000 Ravens.
Though Kansas City defeated Houston 27-19 in Week 16, the Texans’ defense has grown stronger. With the Chiefs going 0-6-1 against the spread when favored by six or more points this season, expect the Texans to keep this game close, even if Mahomes and company secure the win.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels’ Moment
Projected score: Lions 30-20
Pick: Lions -9.5
The Detroit Lions, boasting the NFL’s top-scoring offense, face an inspired Washington Commanders team led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has shattered expectations, becoming the first rookie quarterback to throw two touchdowns in a road playoff win and only the fourth rookie to win on the road in NFL playoff history.
While the Commanders’ resurgence has been fueled by Terry McLaurin, who has scored eight touchdowns since Week 12, keeping pace with Detroit’s high-octane offense will be a tall order. Jared Goff and the Lions offense should prove too powerful, despite Washington’s remarkable turnaround season.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Defense Takes the Spotlight
Projected score: Eagles 23-20
Pick: Rams +6
The Los Angeles Rams, riding a five-game road winning streak, take on the Philadelphia Eagles in what promises to be a tightly contested game. The Rams’ defense has been stellar, allowing fewer than 10 points in four consecutive games. Against the Vikings in the wild-card round, the unit recorded a playoff-record nine sacks, with Ahkello Witherspoon and Cobie Durant contributing key turnovers.
The Eagles, who racked up 481 total yards against the Rams defense earlier this season, now face a much-improved defensive unit. While Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense are formidable, expect the Rams to keep it close with their relentless defensive pressure.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: MVPs Face Off
Projected score: Ravens 27-24
Pick: Ravens -1
The marquee matchup of the weekend pits Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens have leaned on their revitalized defense, which ranks No. 1 in scoring, total defense, and third-down stops since Week 11—a remarkable turnaround after struggling early in the season.
The Bills’ offensive versatility was on full display in the wild-card round, with a balanced attack that dominated time of possession. However, Baltimore’s ability to control the game on the ground and their recent defensive improvements give them a slight edge in this heavyweight showdown.
A Divisional Round Full of Intrigue
The NFL divisional round offers some of the most compelling matchups of the season. From the Chiefs’ historic pursuit of a three-peat to the rise of Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, the weekend promises plenty of drama. Whether it’s the Ravens’ defensive resurgence, the Rams’ relentless defensive pressure, or the Lions’ explosive offense, each game has a unique storyline that fans won’t want to miss.
As the road to the Super Bowl heats up, these games will set the stage for unforgettable moments and further solidify the legacy of the league’s top players.
