Texans vs. Chiefs: The High-Stakes Drama of the 2025 Divisional Round

The Houston Texans return to the Divisional Round for the second consecutive postseason, while the Kansas City Chiefs embark on their pursuit of making NFL history by winning their third consecutive Super Bowl. Both teams are coming into this matchup with distinct challenges and opportunities. As the two sides prepare for Saturday’s clash, here’s a look at the top three storylines to follow:

1) Can the Chiefs’ Offense Hit the Ground Running?

Saturday’s game marks 24 days since we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes in action. The Chiefs quarterback has often thrived following extended breaks, with Kansas City going 4-0 in the Divisional Round after a first-round bye. The Chiefs have averaged 32.8 points per game in these situations, making a strong start crucial if they are to maintain that winning formula.

The team enters the game with a notable mix of offensive weapons: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and rookie Xavier Worthy. Despite Mahomes’ solid but unremarkable performance in Week 16 (28-of-41 passing, 260 yards, and one passing touchdown), Worthy’s standout effort with seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown hints at what’s possible when the team’s offensive stars click.

However, the Chiefs are entering this game after a long layoff, which could make it challenging to find their rhythm early. Mahomes has proven he can win in adverse conditions, especially at Arrowhead Stadium, where Kansas City has a strong postseason track record. But to get back to their championship ways, Kansas City will need to focus on avoiding a slow start against the Texans’ resilient defense.

2) Could This Be C.J. Stroud’s Defining Moment?

For Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, Saturday’s game could become a defining moment in his young career. Stroud has not been as dominant as he was in his remarkable rookie season, but he’s shown his ability to rise to the occasion, particularly after a shaky Wild Card game. Stroud and the offense struggled early against the Chargers, with their first five possessions including a fumble, three punts, and an interception. A slow start at a raucous Arrowhead Stadium would be a recipe for disaster.

Stroud will need his top offensive weapons—Pro Bowlers Joe Mixon and Nico Collins—to step up once again. Collins, in particular, set a franchise postseason record with 122 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round, while Mixon became just the second player in Texans history to rush for over 100 yards in a playoff game. The chemistry between Stroud and Collins has been remarkable, with Stroud posting a perfect passer rating when targeting Collins, compared to just a 62.1 rating on all other targets.

In this high-pressure playoff environment, Stroud will also need contributions from other receivers, such as tight end Dalton Schultz, who found success against the Chiefs in Week 16. For the Texans to pull off an upset, Stroud must lead a fast start and put pressure on the Chiefs’ game plan.

3) Which Defense Will Dominate the Turnover Battle?

When it comes to defensive playmaking, both teams have standout units. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has long been known for his ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks in big games, and this postseason will be no different. The Chiefs’ defense ranks ninth in the NFL, and their playmaking abilities, led by stars like Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, and Trent McDuffie, have been key in Kansas City’s recent success.

On the other side, Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke has also guided a formidable defense. Houston ranks sixth in total defense, and its pass rush has been particularly impressive, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. leading the charge. The Texans’ defense has ranked in the top three for both sacks and takeaways this season, making it one of the most disruptive units in the league.

A critical factor will be the battle in the trenches. Despite taking a career-high 2.3 sacks per game and absorbing 6.8 QB hits, Mahomes’ offensive line has been solidified since Week 15 with the move of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle. Thuney has yet to allow a sack in 130 pass-block attempts, and the Chiefs’ offensive line will need to continue providing Mahomes with time to execute plays or scramble when necessary. Given Mahomes’ track record of success in the postseason—particularly in the Divisional Round, where he’s 6-0 with zero turnovers—controlling the pocket will be critical for both teams.