The UFC Lightweight Division in 2025 Bottlenecks, and Super Fight Possibilities

The UFC lightweight division remains one of the most electrifying and competitive weight classes in the promotion, with reigning champion Islam Makhachev at the helm. Since claiming the title at UFC 280 by defeating Charles Oliveira, Makhachev has successfully defended his belt three times—twice against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and once against former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Despite his dominance, the question on everyone’s mind is, what lies ahead for the Dagestani grappler in 2025? A rematch with Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 311 could be the pivotal fight that changes the entire landscape of the lightweight division.

The Tsarukyan Threat: A Rising Star Ready for the Title

Arman Tsarukyan gave Makhachev one of the toughest challenges of his career during their first meeting at UFC Fight Night 149 in 2019. Although Tsarukyan lost in a decision, his performance made a strong statement, showing that he could go toe-to-toe with one of the best in the world. Since then, Tsarukyan has climbed the ranks to become the rightful number-one contender. Should Makhachev retain his title at UFC 311, the lightweight division could face a major dilemma. Charles Oliveira, currently ranked #2, would be the obvious choice as the next challenger. However, following Makhachev’s dominant victory over Oliveira, a rematch might fail to generate the kind of excitement the division demands.

A Stalled Contender Pool: Who’s Next?

At the top of the lightweight rankings, things are looking increasingly stagnant. Justin Gaethje, ranked #3, seems out of the title picture after suffering a knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300. Similarly, both Dustin Poirier (#4) and Max Holloway (#5) are coming off losses, further diminishing the chances of an immediate title shot. Meanwhile, fighters ranked #6 and below, like Dan Hooker, still have a few hurdles to clear before they can truly contend. With the upper ranks seemingly exhausted, the UFC may need to look outside the promotion for fresh contenders.

The Super Fight Option: Is Ilia Topuria the Answer?

An exciting possibility for the UFC could be a super fight between Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, the reigning featherweight champion. Topuria recently defeated Max Holloway at UFC 308, earning the respect of fans and pundits alike. Like Alexander Volkanovski, Topuria has the potential to pursue champ-champ status by stepping up to lightweight. However, he’ll likely need a few more title defenses to solidify his reign before taking on Makhachev. Still, the prospect of such a superfight is one that could inject new life into the lightweight division.

Looking Outside the UFC: Global Stars Eye Makhachev’s Belt

In light of recent collaborations, the UFC may seek challengers outside of its roster. One notable name is Patricio Pitbull, the Bellator lightweight champion. With frustrations over inactivity following the Bellator-PFL merger, Pitbull could be a valuable addition to the UFC roster. His championship pedigree and status as a BMF contender make him a credible opponent for Makhachev, and fans would undoubtedly flock to see this clash. Another intriguing option is Roberto Satoshi Souza, the undefeated RIZIN lightweight champion. With an impressive 3-0 streak, all via first-round submissions, Souza has emerged as a potential threat to Makhachev’s reign. Given the growing relationship between the UFC and RIZIN, a cross-promotional bout may soon be on the horizon.

A Potential Problem After UFC 311: The Lightweight Bottleneck

If Tsarukyan fails to dethrone Makhachev at UFC 311, the UFC could face a lightweight bottleneck. With many top contenders either defeated or inactive, Makhachev may be left waiting for a legitimate title challenger to emerge. Moving up to welterweight could be an option, but Makhachev’s close friendship with current champion Belal Muhammad makes this scenario highly unlikely, at least while Muhammad holds the belt. This scenario presents a pressing challenge for the UFC’s matchmaking team as they work to keep the lightweight division competitive and engaging for fans in 2025.

Conclusion: A Divisive Year for the Lightweight Division

The UFC lightweight division is undoubtedly filled with elite talent, but 2025 will be a critical year. The outcome of Makhachev’s upcoming defense against Arman Tsarukyan could change the course of the division, forcing the promotion to look for fresh challengers. Whether through cross-promotional matches, new contenders, or a possible rematch, the UFC must continue to innovate and ensure that the lightweight division remains one of the most exciting in MMA. With Makhachev firmly at the top, his reign is secure for now—but the future of the division remains uncertain.